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16.02.2012

Belarus lays ground for positive economic trends, Dubkov says

MINSK, 16 February (BelTA) - Belarus managed to reverse the negative trends in the economy and lay the ground for the development of positive trends, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Bank of Belarus Sergei Dubkov said at the international forum “Capital Market of Belarus. Challenges and Opportunities”.

According to Sergei Dubkov, in 2011 a lot was done to redress the macroeconomic imbalances. The National Bank established the unified exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble, stopped monetary financing of public projects, and raised interest rates in the economy.

Once the unified exchange rate was reached in October 2011, the national currency has strengthened. Monthly balance of foreign trade in goods and services is close to zero. In December 2011, for the first time in several years, businesses became net sellers of foreign currency, whereas previously there was a steady trend towards net purchases. Each month individuals sell more currency than buy it as compared to the beginning of 2011. In general, the supply on the foreign exchange market exceeds the demand.

The volume of urgent ruble deposits in banks started increasing in the second half of 2011. Since September the amount of fixed-term deposits in foreign currency started to recover.

“Recovery of the domestic currency market and stabilization of the Belarusian ruble exchange rate are the most important conditions for sustainable economic development of the country. To secure this sustainability in the longer period is even more important,” Sergei Dubkov noted. For this the country should earn more currency in than the country spends. There should be created necessary conditions for Belarusian products to be competitive in price and quality and be in demand on both the domestic and foreign markets.

The foreign economic activity of the country has recently improved, the official said. It happened, first of all, due to an increase of the price competitiveness of Belarusian products because of almost three-time devaluation of the Belarusian ruble. “In a while this temporary advantage will vanish. And then, if we do not take additional measures, the competitive ability of our economy, with its import and energy consumption, might be jeopardized again,” he said. If we analyze the amounts of the customs duties the Russian Federation pays for oil products as well as the changes in credit and debit indebtedness of companies, the improvements we have reached on the foreign markets become hardly visible.

In 2011 the government in cooperation with the National Bank managed to increase the country’s forex reserves. As of 1 January 2012 Belarus’ international reserve assets reached their record-high of $7.9 billion. The scope of obligations that has been earlier formed and should be fulfilled is significant, too. “That means we should work hard to secure a safety net for the state,” Sergei Dubkov said.