Belarus’ National Bank sees path to refinancing rate cut
20.03.2026
MINSK (
BelTA) – The National Bank of Belarus does not rule out the possibility of lowering the refinancing rate, Andrei Kartun, Deputy Chairman of the Board of the National Bank, told Belarus 1 TV channel, BelTA has learned.
“We do not rule out that as inflation slows and other factors come into play, we will reach a point where we lower the refinancing rate. Such a decision seems to be already suggesting itself. But here we need to take into account all the risks: what is happening in the Middle East, what is happening in the economy, and what is happening with inflation in the country, which, by the way, has already been slowing down in February (if we take February alone, we have not seen such a rate in February over the past nine years),” Andrei Kartun said.
According to him, administrative decisions, such as the postponement of utility tariff increases, could have influenced this. “In April we will already see somewhat higher inflation compared to the norm, because our utility bills in April will already reflect the higher prices. But this does not affect the overall inflation rate in any way as it is a price increase in just one segment,” the deputy chairman said.
The refinancing rate is essentially a kind of average indicator of the cost of money in the economy, covering all deposits and loans, Andrei Kartun explained. “We strive to ensure that this instrument serves as a benchmark for the entire market. What determines the decisions we make? We always look at the situation comprehensively. Starting with the fundamental factor – the inflation rate. And not just the actual rate, but what is expected in the next six months to a year at least. How will it behave? Here we are cautious. We look at the situation in the foreign exchange market – how it is shaping up, how the public is behaving: are they buying or selling foreign currency. We take into account the expectations of economic agents, and not only in Belarus, of course. There are also external risks, for example,” he said.
“We do not rule out that as inflation slows and other factors come into play, we will reach a point where we lower the refinancing rate. Such a decision seems to be already suggesting itself. But here we need to take into account all the risks: what is happening in the Middle East, what is happening in the economy, and what is happening with inflation in the country, which, by the way, has already been slowing down in February (if we take February alone, we have not seen such a rate in February over the past nine years),” Andrei Kartun said.
According to him, administrative decisions, such as the postponement of utility tariff increases, could have influenced this. “In April we will already see somewhat higher inflation compared to the norm, because our utility bills in April will already reflect the higher prices. But this does not affect the overall inflation rate in any way as it is a price increase in just one segment,” the deputy chairman said.
The refinancing rate is essentially a kind of average indicator of the cost of money in the economy, covering all deposits and loans, Andrei Kartun explained. “We strive to ensure that this instrument serves as a benchmark for the entire market. What determines the decisions we make? We always look at the situation comprehensively. Starting with the fundamental factor – the inflation rate. And not just the actual rate, but what is expected in the next six months to a year at least. How will it behave? Here we are cautious. We look at the situation in the foreign exchange market – how it is shaping up, how the public is behaving: are they buying or selling foreign currency. We take into account the expectations of economic agents, and not only in Belarus, of course. There are also external risks, for example,” he said.