Belarus’ central bank chairman explains why refinancing rate has been cut
12.06.2026
MINSK (
BelTA) – Chairman of the Board of the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) Roman Golovchenko explained in an interview with the Respublika newspaper why the refinancing rate had been reduced in Belarus and whether it will be reduced further, BelTA has learned.
“Not so long ago, on 20 May the Board of the National Bank made a decision to cut the refinancing rate and the overnight loan rate by 50 basis points. As of 1 June 2026 they stand at 9.25 % and 10.75 % per annum respectively. Many factors were taken into account when the decision was being made,” Roman Golovchenko said.
First, a trend towards a slowdown of inflation processes began to form in H2 2025. In 2025 the annual growth of consumer prices sat at 6.8 % after peaking at 7.4 % in July. Inflation continues steadily declining this year. In May annual inflation slowed down to 4.8 %, which is close to the medium-term target. The main component of inflation – core inflation – has also slowed down. According to the National Bank’s estimates, the slowdown of inflation is the result of external and internal factors.
“Conditions on foreign markets are turning out to be more favorable than last year. For this reason prices for goods imported into the country are growing less intensively (for example, inflation in Russia slowed down in annual terms to 5.3 % against 9.9 % a year earlier). The situation inside the country remains under control. State bodies constantly monitor the economic situation in various areas, including pricing. The absence of any significant imbalances in the economy testifies to the balanced macroeconomic policy of the state,” the chairman of the NBRB Board noted.
Second, the situation on the deposit market remains stable. Personal savings keep steadily flowing into banks, primarily in Belarusian rubles. At the same time, the priority continues shifting towards irrevocable term deposits with longer maturity periods (over one year). The balances on such deposits grew by Br2.6 billion in January-May 2026 or by 23.8 %.
Actions of the population on the deposit market contribute to improving the quality of the structure of the money supply. Thus, as of 1 June, irrevocable term deposits accounted for 32 % of the ruble money supply (29.3 % as of 1 January 2026).
Third, lending growth rates are assessed as moderate and do not create conditions for excessive pressure on prices. According to Roman Golovchenko, the resources available to banks are sufficient to satisfy the solvent demand for loans from companies and the population. At the same time, supporting the investment activities of commercial entities remains in the focus of attention of banks.
Fourth, according to the National Bank’s forecasts, the average monthly growth rates of core inflation will remain low (about 0.3–0.4 %) until the end of this year. “Its annual level will remain within 5%. At the same time, the inflationary impact on the part of the economy will remain close to neutral. The predicted slowdown of inflation in Russia will become an additional positive factor,” the chairman of the NBRB Board pointed out.
The combination of these factors as well as the predicted balance of risks predetermined the size of the current step in changing the interest rates of the National Bank – 50 basis points.
Roman Golovchenko also answered the question of whether there are prerequisites for a further reduction in the refinancing rate. “Speaking about our plans for the future, we will first see how the economy reacts to our recent decision to cut rates in numbers as well as how the situation develops on the external perimeter. The decision on the dynamics of the refinancing rate is always made after a comprehensive assessment of many factors: the external background, the geopolitical situation, the state of international markets, the level of business activity in the country, the actual and expected level of inflation in the near term, the situation in the balance of payments and on the foreign exchange market, consumer behavior, and other ones. If events develop in a favorable manner, it is possible that before the end of the year we will return to the matter of changing the refinancing rate,” he commented.
“Not so long ago, on 20 May the Board of the National Bank made a decision to cut the refinancing rate and the overnight loan rate by 50 basis points. As of 1 June 2026 they stand at 9.25 % and 10.75 % per annum respectively. Many factors were taken into account when the decision was being made,” Roman Golovchenko said.
First, a trend towards a slowdown of inflation processes began to form in H2 2025. In 2025 the annual growth of consumer prices sat at 6.8 % after peaking at 7.4 % in July. Inflation continues steadily declining this year. In May annual inflation slowed down to 4.8 %, which is close to the medium-term target. The main component of inflation – core inflation – has also slowed down. According to the National Bank’s estimates, the slowdown of inflation is the result of external and internal factors.
“Conditions on foreign markets are turning out to be more favorable than last year. For this reason prices for goods imported into the country are growing less intensively (for example, inflation in Russia slowed down in annual terms to 5.3 % against 9.9 % a year earlier). The situation inside the country remains under control. State bodies constantly monitor the economic situation in various areas, including pricing. The absence of any significant imbalances in the economy testifies to the balanced macroeconomic policy of the state,” the chairman of the NBRB Board noted.
Second, the situation on the deposit market remains stable. Personal savings keep steadily flowing into banks, primarily in Belarusian rubles. At the same time, the priority continues shifting towards irrevocable term deposits with longer maturity periods (over one year). The balances on such deposits grew by Br2.6 billion in January-May 2026 or by 23.8 %.
Actions of the population on the deposit market contribute to improving the quality of the structure of the money supply. Thus, as of 1 June, irrevocable term deposits accounted for 32 % of the ruble money supply (29.3 % as of 1 January 2026).
Third, lending growth rates are assessed as moderate and do not create conditions for excessive pressure on prices. According to Roman Golovchenko, the resources available to banks are sufficient to satisfy the solvent demand for loans from companies and the population. At the same time, supporting the investment activities of commercial entities remains in the focus of attention of banks.
Fourth, according to the National Bank’s forecasts, the average monthly growth rates of core inflation will remain low (about 0.3–0.4 %) until the end of this year. “Its annual level will remain within 5%. At the same time, the inflationary impact on the part of the economy will remain close to neutral. The predicted slowdown of inflation in Russia will become an additional positive factor,” the chairman of the NBRB Board pointed out.
The combination of these factors as well as the predicted balance of risks predetermined the size of the current step in changing the interest rates of the National Bank – 50 basis points.
Roman Golovchenko also answered the question of whether there are prerequisites for a further reduction in the refinancing rate. “Speaking about our plans for the future, we will first see how the economy reacts to our recent decision to cut rates in numbers as well as how the situation develops on the external perimeter. The decision on the dynamics of the refinancing rate is always made after a comprehensive assessment of many factors: the external background, the geopolitical situation, the state of international markets, the level of business activity in the country, the actual and expected level of inflation in the near term, the situation in the balance of payments and on the foreign exchange market, consumer behavior, and other ones. If events develop in a favorable manner, it is possible that before the end of the year we will return to the matter of changing the refinancing rate,” he commented.